The new cold war could promote Asean’s autonomy by creating space for choice, but only so long as the bloc exhibits strategic coherence
The great powers are in the throes of an inevitable transition. The United States and China each believe that history is on its side. Southeast Asian countries do not believe that the global highways of military and financial power have bypassed the US forever or that they should put all their eggs in China’s basket. History is still in flux.
The rules-based global order is like a highway under tensile stress, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, perhaps the most congested junction on the highway between the US and China. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations stands at the heart of that junction. The safety of the highway depends on its structural integrity. The safety of regions along the highway depends on great powers following the rules of the road.
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