Lessons from the 1920s and 30s on tariffs and markets
Investors today might be too complacent about the risks to earnings from slower growth and higher inflation
Related reading
An ever riskier world economy
Trump’s tariff war brings with it unpredictability and a consequent loss of confidence
Beware populist economics
History suggests the political approach ends in unsustainable debt and lower GDP
Lessons from an upbeat US earnings season
The Q2 results are an unreliable gauge of America’s ability to weather tariffs
Don’t be fooled — everything has changed for the global economy
Damage caused by US tariffs has so far been muted but that won’t last
Interest rates are normal, the world is not
Given all this fragility, recessionary or inflationary shocks — or even both together — are conceivable
What economists got wrong in 2025
Forecasts dwelled too much on Donald Trump’s threats and not enough on offsetting factors