Purchases of US energy and commitments to invest in US energy projects have emerged as central elements of the new framework trade agreements US President Donald Trump has reached with key partners. But these seemingly big Trump wins are thin on detail. The sky-high US investment and energy import pledges, while partly reflecting market trends already in place, also overpromise what the US and counterparties can sell and buy. Skeptics question how governments can convince private companies to purchase or sell US energy at the expense of other market participants and regardless of price. But to reach framework agreements, the likes of Japan and the EU have had to swallow higher tariffs while opening their markets to the US, and by doing so, avoid the risk of greater economic pain in a tit-for-tat trade war and, potentially, less of a US security umbrella.
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