Oil suppliers see India as the next big driver of new global demand as growth slows in China, the world leader in demand growth so far this century. But while India does figure to be the largest source of incremental oil demand this decade, there is little chance it will match the pace of growth China has shown over the past 20-plus years. Internal dynamics in India and a different strategic approach than China to domestic development will cap the growth potential of India's oil demand, even though its peak is likely still decades away. India has already overtaken China to lead the world in oil demand growth; Energy Intelligence expects the country to add 197,000 barrels per day of demand in 2025 to its current 5.8 million b/d compared to China's estimated 102,000 b/d of growth this year. Energy Intelligence sees Indian growth slowing in 2026 to 179,000 b/d, while others see demand accelerating next year — Opec and the US Energy Information Administration see India's 2026 demand growing by 250,000 b/d and 280,000 b/d, respectively. India is the world's most populous country and its fastest-growing major economy. But the speed and scale of India's demand expansion will struggle to replicate the magnitude of China's boom. China's oil consumption more than doubled in the decade following its entry into the World Trade Organization in December 2001, adding nearly 500,000 b/d a year over that time. India added 125,000 b/d per year in the same period, including 170,000 b/d annually over the past 10 years. It has rarely matched the intensity of Chinese growth, maxing out at 390,000 b/d added in 2004. Energy Intelligence sees Indian oil demand peaking in the 2040s at around 9 million b/d, although India's oil ministry has said domestic demand will hit 11 million b/d by 2045. The International Energy Agency sees Chinese demand peaking in 2028 at 16.9 million b/d.