Russia could be ready to launch fresh attacks on NATO's eastern flank as early as 2027 if a ceasefire in Ukraine is agreed this year, a security think tank has claimed.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said that Vladimir Putin's commitment to forcing Russia's economy and industry onto a war footing means that Moscow could reconstitute its forces for a fresh conflict within two years.
The report acted on the assumption that a ceasefire would be agreed in Ukraine later this year and that the US under Donald Trump could withdraw from NATO, or reduce American military presence on the continent to refocus on the perceived threat from China.
'European allies can no longer assume that the US will provide the necessary military support to defend the continent against Russian aggression,' the report said.
'Were US forces to disengage from the European theatre from mid-2025, Europe’s window of vulnerability would open quickly.
