Russia may not be preparing to invade NATO, but something more ambiguous could be coming. Intelligence warnings point to provocations designed to rattle the alliance, sow confusion and test its resolve. With uncertainty surrounding Washington’s response, Moscow may see an opportunity to probe NATO’s most vulnerable point: its political unity.

Putin is testing NATO with GPS spoofing, sabotage, and drones, and paying nothing for it. Deterrence requires imposing costs.

Will Russia attack NATO? It depends on whether Vladimir Putin believes he can degrade the alliance's credibility without consequences.