Barclays has turned more hawkish on the US Federal Reserve, now expecting two 25-basis-point rate hikes in 2026. The brokerage sees increases in September and December, reversing its earlier call for unchanged rates. The shift follows hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and renewed concerns over persistent inflation.

Markets now price a 55.5% chance of a Fed rate hike in September after Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech, up from roughly 35%

Warsh's hawkish remarks raised Fed rate hike expectations. Pause in next three decisions at 49% YES.