The Predictable Executive Career Arc Is Over

Careers are becoming harder to plan because two long-term trends are unfolding at once: working lives are growing much longer, and AI is making the future of work increasingly unpredictable. As the traditional career timetable breaks down, professionals can no longer rely on fixed milestones or detailed long-range plans. Instead, they need practical decision rules that help them navigate uncertainty. Three are especially valuable: prepare through small, low-risk experiments before change forces action; invest in capabilities, relationships, health, and curiosity that compound over time; and protect time for reflection so better judgment can guide important career choices.

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