Citadel calls for a surprise 25bps Fed rate hike today, diverging from market expectations. Rate hike by September 2026 at 68.5% YES.

Citigroup traders are betting the Federal Reserve will hold rates at 3.50%-3.75% at this week's FOMC meeting, despite swap markets pricing a 33%

Citigroup expects the Fed to keep rates steady amid a 33% hike chance. Pause in next three meetings at 40% YES.