Russia bombed Ukrainian ships and targeted Mykolaiv port, lowering Ukraine's chance to recapture Crimea by December 31, 2026 to 9.5% YES.

Russia strikes Ukrainian ships with kamikaze drones. Ukraine recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 9.5% YES.

Russia strikes Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, and a cargo ship in the Black Sea. Russia entering Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026 at 31.5% YES.