Iran asserts control over peace timing amid US tensions. US ends Iranian blockade by July 31 at 10.5% YES, by August 31 at 48.5% YES.

Iran refrains from attacking U.S. allies, easing tensions. Military action by a European country on Iran by July priced at 2.9% YES, by August at 6.0% YES.

Iran will stop attacks if the US maintains its military pause. End of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026 at 63.5% YES.