Iranian strikes on a Jordan air base kill 3 US troops, raising tensions. Iranian regime fall by end of 2026 at 10.5% YES; full airspace closure by July at 33.5%.

Iran strikes U.S. bases in Jordan and Kuwait. Military action against a Gulf state by July 22 at 62.5% YES.

Three US soldiers killed in Iranian missile and drone strikes in Jordan and Iraq push the conflict death toll to 17, with retaliatory strikes targeting