Iran claims to have downed US drones and intercepted a missile, raising airspace closure odds. Full airspace closure by August 31 at 53% YES.

Iran claims it shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over Bushehr. Military action against a Gulf state on July 9 at 99.9% YES.

Iran downs a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over Ahvaz. Military action against a Gulf state by July 22 at 57% YES.

Iran intercepts a US cruise missile amid rising tensions. Full airspace closure by July 31 at 37.5% YES.

Iran launches missiles at US targets, escalating tensions. Full airspace closure by August 31 at 57% YES.