US forces intercepted eight explosive drones targeting Erbil, Iraq. Iran military action against a Gulf state on July 9 at 99.9% YES.

A drone was intercepted over Erbil amid threats from Iran-backed militias. Military action by Iran against a Gulf state on July 9 at 99.9% YES.

Iran launched a military operation against Kurdish separatists in Erbil. Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by August 31 at 12% YES.