US attacks on Iranian islands raise speculation about territorial ambitions. Invasion of Iran before 2027 at 17.5% YES.

US-Iran tensions rise as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. War declaration by December 31, 2026 at 5.5% YES; US strikes on 8 countries in 2026 at 35.2% YES.

Iran conducts naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. Next US-Iran meeting in UAE by September 30, 2026 at 0.5% YES.

Iran's military strategy raises concerns for U.S. forces. Military action against a Gulf state on July 9 at 99.9% YES.

Iran attacks supertankers in the Strait of Hormuz. US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 19.5% YES.

US launches new strikes against Iran as Trump considers a nuclear site attack. US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 19.5% YES.

US attacks Iran, prompting retaliation against supertankers. US invasion of Iran before 2027 now at 19.5% YES.

Clashes erupt in the Strait of Hormuz amid rising Iran-US tensions. US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 19.5% YES, blockade ending by August 31 at 54.5% YES.

Operation would be a dramatic military spectacle but would carry costs analysts doubt Washington is willing to incur.

US-Iran tensions escalate with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. US-Iran deal with reconstruction funding in 2026 at 25% YES.

US attacks on Iranian islands raise speculation about territorial ambitions. Invasion of Iran before 2027 at 17.5% YES.

US military targets a supertanker near Iran's Kharg Island, raising invasion odds to 22.5% YES before 2027.