Iran launches drone and missile attacks on U.S. Navy in Bahrain. Military action against a Gulf state by July 13 at 90% YES.

Bahrain activates air raid sirens amid U.S.-Iran tensions. Iranian military action against a Gulf state on July 12 at 70.5% YES.

Iran missile strike causes fire at US Navy Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30 at 15.5% YES.