Ukraine's strikes disrupt Russian oil refining, causing a fuel crisis. Russia entering Sloviansk by December 31, 2026 at 21.5% YES.

Ukraine strikes the Syzran refinery and Russian tankers, raising expectations. Recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 10.5% YES.

Fuel shortages in Crimea worsen after Ukrainian strikes on infrastructure. Ukraine recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 10.5% YES.