Analysis: National appears to be baked in as a party of 30 or below with at least eight reputable polls this year, including the recent RNZ-Reid Research, having the party slump into the 20s.

The latest model shows Labour will struggle to return to form a govt without Opportunity.

Analysis: National appears to be baked in as a party of 30 or below with at least eight reputable polls this year, including the recent RNZ-Reid Research, having the party slump…

National dropped to 28.7%, its weakest result since November 2021.

Most voters remain unconvinced a new leader would help boost National or Labour's election chances, although support for a switch-up has grown over the past year.