"An escalation in hostilities on 7-8 July, however, clouds the outlook and could upend the forecast that sees the market flipping to a surplus next year"

In its new Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA said last month's US-Iran MOU prompted massive revisions to its prior forecast.

Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and attacks on commercial shipping have reignited fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices sharply higher.

Global oil supply rebounded in June after a ceasefire allowed Strait of Hormuz transit. However, renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran threaten future oil surplus…

Renewed hostilities could undermine credibility of future ceasefires with long-term impact on global energy markets, inflation and risk premiums, analyst says.

Sources suggest that the ceasefire can be revived amid a lull in fighting and backroom diplomacy.

"An escalation in hostilities on 7-8 July, however, clouds the outlook and could upend the forecast that sees the market flipping to a surplus next year"

The IEA eased its forecast declines for global oil supply and demand this year as June proved stronger than expected. But Hormuz hangs in the balance.