"An escalation in hostilities on 7-8 July, however, clouds the outlook and could upend the forecast that sees the market flipping to a surplus next year"

In its new Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA said last month's US-Iran MOU prompted massive revisions to its prior forecast.

Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and attacks on commercial shipping have reignited fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices sharply higher.