Labour will challenge Farage in the Clacton by-election. Farage's win probability drops to 90.9% YES.

The embattled Reform UK leader is facing growing questions over his financial affairs and is subject to a Parliamentary investigation over a £5million gift from a party donor.

The Reform leader had faced intense security over his financial arrangements

The Clacton constituency, on the coast of Essex in eastern England, has had an eventful history

Major parties boycott the Clacton by-election, boosting Farage's chances. Farage to win at 95.4% YES.

Farage's rivals will not contest the Clacton by-election. Farage winning at 94.6% YES.