Ukraine strikes an oil pumping hub in Russia's Bashkortostan region. Russia entering Sloviansk by December 31, 2026 at 26.5% YES.

Ukraine launched drone strikes on Russian refineries and ports, causing market odds for recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 to drop to 11.5% YES.

Ukraine strikes a Russian oil tanker and Kerch terminal in Crimea. Recapturing Crimean territory by December 31, 2026 at 11.5% YES.

Ukrainian drones struck the Omsk Oil Refinery, signaling a shift in military capabilities. Recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 10.5% YES.

Ukraine targets Russian energy infrastructure with drone strikes. Recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026, now at 10.5% YES.

Ukraine strikes an oil pumping hub in Russia's Bashkortostan region. Russia entering Sloviansk by December 31, 2026 at 26.5% YES.

Ukraine strikes Russian oil refineries in Tatarstan, escalating conflict. Russia entering Sloviansk by December 31, 2026 at 26.5% YES.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) carried out a successful strike on the Cherkasy oil pipeline control station in Ufa, Russia's Republic of Bashkortostan, on the night of 7-8…

Ukraine strikes Russian refineries and tankers in a drone attack. Recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 10.5% YES.

Ukraine hit three Russian refineries and tankers overnight in a drone campaign, with nearly 200 refinery strikes in 2026 pressuring oil markets and risk