Ukraine strikes Russian oil refineries in Tatarstan, escalating conflict. Russia entering Sloviansk by December 31, 2026 at 26.5% YES.

Ukraine launched drone strikes on Russian refineries and ports, causing market odds for recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 to drop to 11.5% YES.

Ukraine strikes a Russian oil tanker and Kerch terminal in Crimea. Recapturing Crimean territory by December 31, 2026 at 11.5% YES.