Ukraine strikes Crimean air bases, damaging seven Russian aircraft. Recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026, at 11.5% YES.

Ukrainian drone strikes worsen Russian fuel shortages, with Putin acknowledging the crisis. Ukraine recaptures Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 0.1% YES.

Ukraine expands missile strikes inside Russia, raising concerns of escalation. Russian nuclear test by December 31, 2026, at 10.9% YES.