At present, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket place the likelihood of a 2026 rate hike at 53% to 54%.

Fed's Warsh signals a potential rate hike in 2026 if inflation stays high. Inflation at 3.8% in June priced at 46.7% YES.

Fed may raise rates under Warsh's leadership. Rate hike by October 2026 at 43.5% YES.