Market sentiment overestimates Fed rate hikes despite potential cuts. Rate hike by September 2026 at 36.5% YES.

Market sentiment overestimates Fed rate hikes despite potential cuts. Rate hike by September 2026 at 36.5% YES.

At present, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket place the likelihood of a 2026 rate hike at 53% to 54%.

Fed expected to hold interest rates through 2026 amid inflation concerns. Rate hike in 2026 at 54.5% YES.