Israeli forces seized a Hezbollah command center in Lebanon, lowering the chance of a peace deal by June 30, 2026 to 13.2% YES.

Israel plans to expand its occupation of southern Lebanon, reducing the likelihood of a ceasefire; permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 17.5% YES.

Israeli offensive in southern Lebanon escalates conflict with Hezbollah. Permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 21.3% YES.

Iran cancels US talks after clashes escalate. Permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 18.2% YES.