Months of war and a blockade have battered Iran .Its navy is at the bottom of the Persian Gulf. Its air force is destroyed. Its economy is in ruins.

The Hormuz ceasefire calmed markets fast, but Iran gained leverage, Israel lost tempo, and the Gulf faces a bigger resilience bill. What each actor actually won.

Tehran strengthened by emerging agreement, especially in the eyes of Arab countries, which fear future attacks and so will offer economic support; Axis of extremist Sunni states…