Oil traders are increasingly betting on lower prices, with short positions in Brent crude tripling since late March despite the loss of roughly 13 million bpd of supply from the Middle East.

"Each additional month of disruption would lift average prices by roughly $5 in 3Q26 and $15 in 4Q26, driven primarily by accelerating inventory depletion."

Markets may be underestimating the risk, with traders betting on a Hormuz reopening even as physical oil stocks approach critically low levels and tanker traffic remains disrupted.

US assertions that a peace deal is imminent and growing evidence of oil market resilience to the Mideast supply shock are exerting downward pressure on prices.

Global oil inventories are being depleted at a record pace, as governments draw down strategic reserves and stored crude to offset lost supply, while U.S. fuel stocks have fallen…

66.2 million barrels drained from the SPR since the Iran 'mini-war' started (16% of the pre-war total)

Oil traders are increasingly betting on lower prices, with short positions in Brent crude tripling since late March despite the loss of roughly 13 million bpd of supply from the…