Oil traders are increasingly betting on lower prices, with short positions in Brent crude tripling since late March despite the loss of roughly 13 million bpd of supply from the Middle East.

Markets may be underestimating the risk, with traders betting on a Hormuz reopening even as physical oil stocks approach critically low levels and tanker traffic remains disrupted.

US assertions that a peace deal is imminent and growing evidence of oil market resilience to the Mideast supply shock are exerting downward pressure on prices.