One bank says it is increasingly likely that Hormuz never fully reopens and that the debate needs to shift to shape of "new normal" - in that world, tank bottoms would be reached in October (in the US) or December (globally).

Oil importers in Global South to feel supply shortage heat, analysts say

Two weeks ago traders saw a 60% chance that the Strait of Hormuz would open before August. Now traders see a higher chance that it will open before 2027.