Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had appeared poised to win a clear victory in a closely watched parliamentary election Sunday, but the ballot result now defies easy geopolitical takeways.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan leads polls ahead of Sunday’s high-stakes vote, seeking a mandate for sweeping constitutional reforms despite intensifying Russian trade blockades.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his governing party are looking for a strong mandate for a new geopolitical course for Armenia. The opposition includes some parties that are…