IEA data shows onshore inventories fell sharply while more crude is stuck at sea, making supplies harder to access quickly; if the trend continues, analysts warn oil could climb from about $109 to at least $140 a barrel

Oil prices could top $130-$140 a barrel next month if the strait remains closed and inventory depletion rates remain steady, according to Capital Economics.

Oil prices remain near $100 despite the Hormuz disruption, but inventory drawdowns, spare capacity limits, and structural constraints suggest a delayed supply shock ahead.