The AI bubble’s shaky math

When OpenAI recently committed $1.4 trillion to securing future computing capacity, it was merely the latest indication of irrational exuberance in 2025. By some estimates, US gross domestic product growth in the first half of this year came almost entirely from data centers, prompting a flood of commentary about when the bubble will burst and what it may leave behind. While the late-1990s dot-com party ended with a hangover for Wall Street, Main Street kept what mattered: the infrastructure. Productivity rose and the fiber laid during the boom years still works today.

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