The opposition's 8% lead has disappeared and the vote is too close to call

Sweden is heading for an unexpected nail-biter of an election on Sunday as progressives have squandered a sizeable lead while the conservative centre right makes a late comeback.

For most of Sweden’s election campaign, the result seemed predetermined.

The four opposition parties had held a commanding lead, sometimes reaching double digits, while the Liberals – the smallest member of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s governing coalition – seemed destined to fall below the 4% threshold for representation in the Riksdag.

With the Liberals out of parliament, the arithmetic for Kristersson’s right-wing bloc would have been close to impossible.