Ryan Wingo and Texas are in a near coin-flip game against Ohio State on Saturday. Tim Warner / Getty ImagesSept. 11, 2026 11:43 am EDT Updated The first marquee game of the college football season is on Saturday when No. 1 Ohio State goes to No. 4 Texas. The odds and my model both have this game as a near coin flip.My projection model favors Ohio State by a mere point at Texas. It also has Oklahoma winning at Michigan by 5.1 points, compared to a spread that has bounced between 4.5 and 5.5 points.The model takes into account past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the FanDuel lines for extra context. There is considerable uncertainty in these early season games, given coach moves and rosters assembled through the transfer portal, but the model attempts to account for this.For more on my college football projections, check out my projected bracket, which shows the estimates for each team’s chances of making the College Football Playoff. The numbers are updated with the latest game results. Entering Week 2, Oregon is viewed as the most likely team to make the CFP (82 percent), followed by Notre Dame (81 percent) and Indiana (81 percent). Ohio State (76 percent) and Texas (58 percent) are both expected to make it, but Saturday’s result will move those numbers significantly.Below are the projected margins of victory and totals for every FBS vs. FBS game this week.