Since the start of 2026, two key pillars buttressing NATO deterrence have taken a hit. The first is the ongoing rapid and deep deterioration of US munitions stockpiles resulting from the war with Iran, and the second is the May announcement of immediate and substantial limitations on US contributions to NATO’s Force Model in the event of a future conflict.
Now, the Pentagon has launched a European force posture review. The Secretary of War will be briefed on a few sets of options for the size and distribution of US forces in Europe in early November, with the process ending in early December. President Donald Trump will then make the ultimate decision on accepting, amending or rejecting the department’s recommendation, no doubt with input from the National Security Council and State Department.
Periodically undertaking a clear-eyed review of America’s commitments in Europe is a prudent exercise. But considering the Kremlin’s increasingly active kinetic campaign against Europe, and a European rearmament that has not gained full steam, an honest review should conclude that the US must retain a robust force posture in Europe.
The reality is that there is little excess left to cut from the US presence in Europe without affecting capabilities. The 80,000 combined rotational and permanent troops currently deployed there are well below the average permanent American presence in Europe of approximately 94,000 since the Cold War ended.
