To read the headlines, Venezuela's battered upstream sector appears to be on the cusp of an investment bonanza. The flurry of announced or mooted investments in the last couple weeks — including from Western majors and an obscure private company that, through an unprecedented deal, is now partnered with the US government — has been head-spinning. The assets in question range from brownfield revivals to greenfield developments and figure to keep Venezuelan production ticking higher. But the magnitude of that growth, the timelines for delivery and whether investment will match the lofty heights touted by the White House remain crucial, unanswered questions. The US' ouster of Venezuela's then-President Nicolas Maduro in January and installation of his former deputy, Delcy Rodriguez, have paved the way for substantial change in Venezuela's moribund oil sector. US President Donald Trump has pushed hard for investment, and Venezuelan crude oil production has indeed recovered to around 1.08 million barrels per day in August, from 867,000 b/d across full-year 2025, Energy Intelligence figures show. But while companies have gotten to work in a way not seen in years thanks in part to heavily relaxed US sanctions, activity remains a far cry from the $100 billion investment windfall Trump claimed would take shape. A major overhaul of Venezuela's hydrocarbon law under Rodriguez has also proven crucial, with subsequent regulations and decrees spelling out fiscal terms for foreign operators. Caracas' new-look upstream contracts safeguard royalties, taxes and other terms, and, crucially, offer recourse to international arbitration if required — changes welcomed by many potential investors but with lingering concerns. Venezuela's oil ministry pegs wider liquids output above 1.23 million b/d.