The Turkish economy is going through a challenging period in which wars, geopolitical tensions and increasingly strong protectionist trends in global trade are reshaping the balance of the world economy. In this conjuncture, the Medium-Term Program covering the period 2027-2029 is not merely a technical document outlining inflation and growth targets. It is a roadmap showing what kind of production, investment, and foreign trade structure the Turkish economy aims to adopt in the next three years, too.
When we look at the details of the program, three main themes stand out: the source of growth, the business environment on which investments will be based, and the strengthening of foreign trade through new markets and logistical connections. In fact, each of these is a different part of the goal of building the Turkish economy on higher productivity, stronger production capacity, and lower external vulnerability.
Source of growth in production is changing
The new Medium-Term Program (MTP) foresees a gradual increase in growth targets. Growth, expected to be 3.3% in 2026, is targeted to reach 4.2% in 2027, 4.6% in 2028, and 5% in 2029. This path points to a framework where the effects of wars and global shocks will diminish over time, and the Turkish economy will once again approach its potential growth. However, the crucial point here is not so much how much growth will occur, but where it will come from. The fact that the growth rate of total investments has recently exceeded that of total consumption is significant in this respect. In the first quarter of 2026, investments increased by over 7% on an annualized basis, while consumption showed a more moderate trend. This picture shows that growth is intended to be supported not only by domestic demand, but also by investments that increase production capacity and productivity.
