Thursday, September 3rd 2026 - 22:24 UTC
The global producing centers that feed into the update put the likelihood of the event persisting through February 2027 at “nearly 100%”
El Niño is firmly established in the tropical Pacific and will intensify over the coming months into a very strong event, peaking towards the end of 2026 and with climate effects extending well into 2027, according to an update released on Thursday by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in Geneva.
The global producing centers that feed into the update put the likelihood of the event persisting through February 2027 at “nearly 100%.” It is the first time a WMO El Niño/La Niña Update has been so unequivocal, which the organization attributes to the strong agreement among the models across its network.
The Niño 3.4 index, the most widely used measure of sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, averaged 1.5 °C above normal between May and July and 2 °C in July. Weekly values rose further between late July and mid-August, ranging from 2.2 °C to 2.6 °C above average. Warming below the surface is even more pronounced: in some areas, subsurface ocean temperatures exceeded normal values by more than 8 °C during July and early August.
