Football fans: Our long national nightmare has finally reached its conclusion. The National Football League is back — and not a moment too soon.“What’s up, everybody, Nick Kostos here” — picture this being said in my best radio voice, as you can hear me say every morning while hosting “You Better You Bet” on Westwood One Sports — and it is amazing to be writing for The Athletic this season. I have subscribed to this publication for years and love their podcast offerings, so this is a very cool moment for me. I don’t take being here in this hallowed real estate for granted.I am thrilled to be here and hope that we both have fun and profit together! Because this season, I’ll be writing a weekly column picking every NFL game, straight up and against the spread, to help with your pools. We’ll also get into the games that actually make my betting card.That’s right.Every game, ranked in order of my favorite picks to the games I want absolutely nothing to do with, complete with the rationale behind the decisions.Do I promise to win every week? Hell no. If I won every week, I wouldn’t be writing this column. I’d be on a yacht somewhere, probably eating expensive sandwiches and washing them down with expensive wine.The hope is that I will have a successful season. And hope springs eternal before the start of the year.I have more than a few bets in Week 1. It is important to say that if you choose to wager this weekend, please please please do so responsibly! I am, so even if I lose all my bets (an undesirable outcome!), I’ll be able to sleep comfortably at night. As comfortably as one can who loses all his bets.Without further ado, from 16 (most) to 1 (least), let’s jump into my confidence picks for NFL Week 1.Super Bowl 61 predictions: Detroit Lions vs. Denver Broncos?Robert Mays and Derrik KlassenNFL pick ’em picks16. Falcons at SteelersTua Tagovailoa almost lost a quarterback competition to you and me this summer. The Falcons will be without both their young, stud pass rushers in Jalon Walker (torn ACL, done for the season) and James Pearce (suspended for the first eight games). How in the world are the Falcons going to pressure Aaron Rodgers? Easy: they’re not. And there’s nothing a 43-year-old quarterback with an aversion to being hit will enjoy more than not facing a legitimate pass rush.I think the Steelers roll it up on Tua and the Falcons. If you can find them at -3, it’s my favorite bet of the week. If I can lay -3, it is my most confident pick of the week.