Royal Bank of Canada just turned in a quarter that most CEOs would frame and hang on the wall. Then Dave McKay spent much of the earnings call talking about all the things that could go wrong.
RBC’s Q3 2026 profit hit $6 billion, or $4.23 per share, marking an 11% jump year-over-year. Commercial banking posted record results. Loan delinquencies remained stable. And yet McKay’s message to analysts was decidedly cautious: the escalating trade war between the US and Canada is injecting real uncertainty into credit markets, and RBC is positioning accordingly.
Good numbers, guarded tone
RBC increased its loan-loss provisions by more than 50% earlier in 2026, a preemptive move to absorb potential defaults if the tariff situation deteriorates further. That’s a bank that beat estimates while simultaneously building a bigger cushion for bad times.
McKay pointed to a few reasons for cautious optimism. The effective tariff rate on Canadian goods sits at roughly 6%, and over 80% of US-bound exports remain duty-free.
