Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, has formally requested that its oil production baseline be raised to 6 million barrels per day as part of an ongoing OPEC+ capacity audit. That figure would represent an increase of approximately 1.57 million bpd over its current quota of around 4.431 million bpd, a jump that would reshape the group’s supply dynamics if approved.
The request, made on September 9, 2026, lands at a delicate moment. An independent consultant is conducting the capacity review, which is expected to wrap up by the end of this month, with formal ministerial ratification of new quotas anticipated in November.
The gap between ambition and output
Iraq’s ask is bold, to put it mildly. The International Energy Agency pegs Iraq’s sustainable oil production capacity at around 4.9 million bpd. That leaves a gap of more than 1 million barrels per day between what the IEA thinks Iraq can reliably produce and what Baghdad says its baseline should be.
The disconnect gets even wider when you look at actual output. In August 2026, Iraq’s production ranged between 2.98 and 3.37 million bpd, weighed down by previous disruptions. So the country is currently pumping well below even its existing quota, let alone the new one it’s requesting.
