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Almost as soon as the U.S. began the war in Iran, an international consensus decided that it was a terrible idea. And since then, the critics have had plenty of material to confirm that thesis. We’ve seen confusing messaging from the White House, rifts with Israel, broken ceasefires, an MOU that lasted less than a month, reports of diminished munitions, unhappy allies, an overheating bond market, and of course, a steady din of Truth Social threats that are invariably walked back by the president 72 hours later.

But what if all of this ultimately works?

I think it’s worth keeping in mind that the net impact of the Iran War remains a largely unsettled question. So rather than surveying a sea of expert opinions deriding the war as a catastrophe or an endless supply of Foreign Affairs essays explaining why the U.S. strategy is doomed to fail, I will begin by citing not a think tanker, but cultural critic Chuck Klosterman, from his book But What If We’re Wrong?:

But what about the things we’re all wrong about?