By
Ed Kilgore,
political columnist for Intelligencer since 2015
We’re now two months out from the 2026 midterm elections, and in some ways, the outcome is even more uncertain than usual. The basic rules of how votes are cast and counted are still up in the air thanks to Donald Trump’s last-minute effort to give the U.S. Postal Service the power to decide who is entitled to vote.
But election forecasters are still hard at work, and we do have a good idea of how the post-midterms partisan power configuration might affect the remainder of Trump’s second term. Some very small variations in the House and Senate results could have a very big impact on Washington. Here’s a look at the three basic scenarios.
