Tugboats guide the oil tanker Odessa, carrying UAE crude, in Seosan port, South Korea, after it passed the Strait of Hormuz with its Automatic Identification System transponder turned off. (Photo: Reuters)
SINGAPORE — Global oil benchmark Brent crude has rallied this month but stayed below US$100 a barrel despite recent escalation in the US-Iran conflict that has disrupted Gulf exports from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.Crude oil shipments from Middle East producers are at about 11 million barrels per day (bpd) now, from 18 million bpd before the Iran war began seven months ago, according to Argus, an independent media organisation.
Here are some of the factors driving oil prices:
Significant volumes have been able to flow through Hormuz
In the week before fighting erupted again on Aug 30, roughly 8 million to 9 million bpd had been flowing through Hormuz, double the previous week's volume, said Rystad Energy's Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti. While flows have since fallen to below 2 million bpd, the daily moving average is still around 4 million to 5 million barrels which puts Brent at a "fair" price of $95, Galimberti said.
