Sinopec, one of China’s largest oil companies, has projected a significant decline in China’s oil demand for 2026, estimating a reduction of 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to the previous year. This forecast suggests an 8.9% drop in apparent oil demand, aligning with recent trends of weaker demand in the country. Market observers have noted that China’s oil demand may have peaked in the past year, with the latest figures indicating a continued softening of demand. This projection by Sinopec is seen as reinforcing expectations of a reduced demand for crude oil and lower refinery throughput in China.
Prediction market pricing appears consistent with participants interpreting Sinopec’s forecast as likely to affect the odds of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30, 2026. The current pricing for this outcome indicates a 1.4% probability, a slight increase from 1% the previous day, but still significantly lower than a week ago when it stood at 3%. The market for a new all-time high by December 31, 2026, shows a 10.5% probability, reflecting a decline from 14% a week earlier.
Key Takeaways
Sinopec’s forecast appears to suggest a significant decline in China’s oil demand, with a decrease of 600,000 bpd projected for 2026.
