Bitcoin is clinging to the $78,000-$79,000 range after sliding from recent highs near $82,000. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is consolidating between 7,700 and 7,718. Both markets are waiting for clarity on inflation before the Federal Reserve makes its September 16 rate decision.
The inflation gauntlet ahead
The Producer Price Index lands on September 10, followed by the Consumer Price Index on September 11. Those two reports will effectively write the script for the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for September 15-16.
The last CPI reading, covering July, came in at 3.4% year-over-year. That’s well above the Fed’s 2% target. Markets are currently pricing in a 58-59% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September meeting.
August’s nonfarm payrolls number added 162,000 jobs, a figure strong enough to keep the labor market narrative firmly in the “resilient” column. For the Fed, that combination of sticky inflation and solid employment is the kind of data that makes rate cuts feel very far away.
