South Africa’s retail property market lost momentum in the second quarter as trading density and rental growth fell below inflation, pointing to increasingly cautious consumers who are changing how they spend rather than abandoning discretionary purchases altogether.The latest Clur shopping centre index, which tracks more than 5.4-million square metres of retail space across listed and unlisted property funds in South Africa and Namibia, shows annualised trading density rose 4.6% year on year to R43,612/m2 in the three months to June. This was 0.4 percentage points below June’s inflation rate.“The trend of ongoing resilient positive growth continued across the board, with an encouragingly stable rent-to-sales level,” said Clur International founder and MD Belinda Clur.However, she said the market had reached an inflection point as trading density and rental growth fell behind inflation in May and June. The trend had been inflation-beating since October 2024.“The financial affordability reset sees a high level of strategic value engineering across the market,” Clur said.Consumers are cutting costs while trying to preserve their quality of life, with the shift extending beyond essentials such as groceries, utilities and debt to apparel, homeware, travel, transport and experiences.May was the first month since September 2024 in which trading density growth underperformed inflation. Clur said the shift reflected consumers recalibrating their finances and priorities amid continued economic pressure.Super-regional centres remained the strongest performers, with trading density growth of 5.1%, followed by regional centres at 4.6%. Community and smaller centres recorded growth of 4.4%.Super-regional centres were the only format to outperform June inflation by 0.1 percentage points. Community and smaller centres underperformed inflation by 0.6 percentage points.Gauteng was the strongest-performing major province, with trading density growth of 5%, followed by the Western Cape at 4.5% and KwaZulu-Natal at 4.1%. The Western Cape retained the highest trading density at R50,629/m2.Read: What is behind Joburg’s R196bn property discount to Cape Town?Rental growth also slipped behind inflation. National base rent increased 4.8% year on year to R248.69/m2, 0.2 percentage points below June CPI.The Western Cape was the only major province to outperform inflation, with base rental growth of 5.3% to R274.07/m2. Gauteng recorded growth of 4.8% and KwaZulu-Natal 3.8%.Despite the slowdown, the relationship between rents and retail sales remained stable. The national base rent-to-sales ratio held at 6.6%, a level Clur said had remained broadly unchanged since mid-2024.“In this contracted but resilient market we have a clever consumer who does not want to give up on luxuries,” Clur said.The behaviour is reflected in continued demand for smaller luxuries, wellness, experiences and nostalgia-driven purchases as consumers seek emotional rewards from increasingly constrained disposable incomes.Clur said the shift was also changing what consumers valued, with greater emphasis on wellness, culture, personal balance and experiences.“There is a strong desire for mental and creative stimulation, with a new focus on culture and the art of living,” she said.The changing spending patterns point to a more selective consumer who remains willing to spend but is increasingly weighing the value and emotional payoff of each purchase.Business Day
Retail property growth trails inflation as spending shifts
Super-regional centres and Western Cape outperform as the market recalibrates
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