Copper hit an all-time intraday high of $14,527.50 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange on January 29, 2026. By early September, prices were still hovering around $14,430 per metric ton, suggesting this isn’t a spike so much as a new altitude.
The proximate cause is a familiar one in 2026: US tariff policy. An ongoing Section 232 investigation into copper imports has markets convinced that significant duties are coming, with proposals circulating for a 15% tariff starting January 2027, potentially rising to 30% by 2028. When traders see a price cliff approaching, they buy now. A lot.
The front-loading effect
The mechanics here are straightforward. If you’re a US manufacturer who needs copper and you believe it’s about to get 15% more expensive on January 1, you accelerate every purchase you can. Multiply that logic across an entire industrial economy and you get July 2026’s import numbers: a record 225,094 metric tons of refined copper flowing into the US in a single month.
The result is a bifurcated global market. US Comex copper inventories swelled to record levels somewhere between 695,000 and 766,000 short tons, a stockpile that reflects pure defensive buying. Meanwhile, LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks have fallen sharply, often dipping below 250,000 tons, because the copper that would normally replenish global warehouses has been rerouted toward American storage facilities.
