Warnings of imminent escalation by Russia, in its overt war on Ukraine or its covert campaigns in Europe, have once again been increasing in intensity in recent weeks. Part of that increase is accounted for by a familiar pattern of Russian intimidation, amplified by Western media.
But it’s also true that the intelligence services of usually reliable European countries have been sounding the alarm over Russia’s possible next moves.
That includes renewed speculation over whether Russia will undertake mass mobilisation to build up the numbers in its military. This has been a constant topic of discussion among Russia-watchers for most of the war – but until now, it’s a step the Kremlin hasn’t been willing to take.
Shorts
Russia’s military planners have a familiar balance to strike between the manpower needs of the war in Ukraine, including replacing the vast number of casualties that result from Russia’s traditional disregard for their own troops, and the public discontent that could result from more assertive measures to round people up for the military.
