Central banks around the world acquired more than 23 tonnes of gold in July, marking the fourth consecutive month of purchases. The People’s Bank of China led the demand with a purchase of 20 tonnes, increasing its total acquisitions for the year to 60 tonnes. Poland followed with an addition of 8 tonnes, raising its total purchases for 2026 to 90 tonnes. This trend of accumulation has resulted in a year-to-date total of 130 tonnes acquired by central banks, slightly below the 160 tonnes purchased in the same period last year.
The steady accumulation of gold by central banks suggests a sustained confidence in the commodity, potentially influencing market perception and pricing. Current market data on Polymarket indicates a relatively low probability of gold reaching $15,000 by the end of December 2026, with YES priced at just 1.5%. However, the ongoing purchases may provide supportive indications for higher gold prices.
Analysts are closely watching geopolitical developments and economic indicators that could affect gold’s trajectory. Factors such as potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation levels in the U.S. could also play a critical role in shaping the market’s outlook on gold prices.
